The Impact of High-Altitude Winter Conditions on Traffic Accidents: An Analysis of Temporal and Climatic Factors in the Case of Erzurum Province

This study investigates the impact

of high-altitude winter conditions on traffic accidents in Erzurum Province,

Turkey, where harsh winters and challenging topography significantly affect

road safety. Using a dataset of 16,793 traffic accident records from 2014 to

2023, temporal parameters (year, month, daylight), climatic parameters (weather

condition, road surface condition, lighting condition), and accident outcomes

(fatalities and injuries) were analyzed. Data preprocessing involved removing

incomplete or erroneous records and generating an accident severity index.

Statistical methods, including one-way and two-way ANOVA and binary logistic

regression, were applied to identify the effects of seasonal and environmental

factors on accident severity. The results indicate that snowfall, slippery road

surfaces, and insufficient lighting are the primary contributors to severe

accidents, whereas nighttime driving alone was not statistically significant.

Interaction effects such as Month × Weather Condition and Lighting × Daylight

Condition highlight that accident risks are better explained when environmental

and temporal factors are considered together. These findings emphasize the

importance of proactive road maintenance, snow and ice removal, and lighting

improvements to enhance traffic safety in high-altitude regions. Future

research should incorporate real-time weather data, traffic volume, and

advanced predictive models, such as ensemble or deep learning techniques, to

develop comprehensive accident prevention strategies.<o:p></o:p>