The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Internal Migration Trends in Türkiye and Medium-Term Forecasts for the Future

The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant effects on demographic mobility, economic systems, environmental changes, and social structures. In this study, using internal migration data from 2008 to 2023, the structure of interregional migration flows and internal migration trends in Türkiye during the COVID-19 pandemic were evaluated. The migration movements of the regions before and during the pandemic were analyzed using crude migration, migration effectiveness, and net migration methods to examine changes in interregional migration flows. In addition, the Bayesian ARIMA model was used to estimate short- and medium-term transformations in internal migration flows following the pandemic. This method was used to project internal migration flows at the regional level up to 2035. The analyses revealed a general decrease in migration intensity across all regions during the pandemic period. Furthermore, migration intensified significantly from metropolitan areas to smaller settlements and rural areas during the pandemic. The forecast model developed in the study predicts a decline in net migration rates in regions such as Istanbul in the coming years. In contrast, regions such as the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Western Anatolia are expected to receive more migration in the future. The study concluded that although the migration pull factor of metropolitan cities will weaken, they will retain this characteristic. Conversely, regions that have consistently experienced negative migration from the past to the present will continue to exhibit this characteristic in the coming period. The study's findings indicate that the impact of the reverse migration pattern observed during the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration flows was short-lived. In this regard, the study has the potential to contribute to the planning of migration management policies, particularly by providing forecasts of migration flows and internal migration burdens at the regional level in the short and medium term.