Spatio temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin

In this study, the aim was to measure changes in the spatio-temporal

distribution of a potential drought hazard area and determine the risk

status of various meteorological and hydrological droughts by using the

kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and inverse distance weighting

(IDW) interpolation methods. With that goal, in monthly, three-month,

and 12-month time periods drought indices were calculated.

Spatio-temporal distributions of the droughts were determined with each

drought index for the years in which the most severe droughts were

experienced. According to the results, the basin is under risk of

meteorological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme

droughts in most of the area, and especially in the north, during the

monthly and three-month time periods. During the 12-month period, it was

found that most of the basin is under risk of hydrological drought due

to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts, especially in the

southern parts. The most effective interpolation method for the

prediction of meteorological and hydrological droughts was determined as

kriging according to the results of the cross-validation test. It was

concluded that a drought management plan should be made, and early

warnings and precautions should be applied in the study area.