Küresel Belirsizliğin Borsa İstanbul İmalat Sanayi Üzerindeki Etkisi

In times of economic crisis and recession, investors face the problem of predicting the future of the economy due to the

environment of uncertainty. The volatility of the stock market increases as a result of the high uncertainty especially in

the real sector. In this sense, it can be expected that the positive effect of real sector uncertainty on the volatility of the

stock market will become more evident in times of global crisis. In this context, the aim of the study is to discuss the effect

of real sector uncertainty on the volatility of the stock returns of Turkey's manufacturing industry within the framework

of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Crisis. The analysis, using the exponential GARCH model, is conducted

for September 15, 2008, to June 30, 2009, to represent the 2008 Global Financial Crisis period, and from March 10, 2020,

to February 25, 2022, to represent the COVID-19 Crisis period. In order to represent the manufacturing industry in the

analysis, the returns of the stocks of the food, chemistry, textile, paper, stone, and soil-based industries, metal main

industry, and metal goods industry are used. The model results show that the volatility of the stock market increases

during global crisis periods when the real sector uncertainty increases. While the model findings show that Turkey's

manufacturing industry sector increased the volatility of stock returns during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the

COVID-19 Crisis; shows that the volatility of stock returns was higher during the COVID-19 Crisis. While the 2008 Global

Financial Crisis affected the average returns of the manufacturing industry sector; The COVID-19 Crisis, on the other hand, mostly affects the volatility of sector returns. As a result, the model’s findings show that the effects of crises that caused

serious contractions in the real sector, such as the COVID-19 Crisis, on stock market volatility are more dominant.