MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKIYE

International migration is an increasingly widespread phenomenon of our age with macroeconomic determinants. There are many economic and non-economic forces behind the decision to migrate. This study estimates the impact of macroeconomic determinants on international migration to Turkiye. Turkiye's annual data for 1990-2023 were used in the econometric analysis. The economic determinants used in this study are total tax burden, social assistance, GDP per capita, economic freedom index, unemployment, and health expenditures. Time series regression models were used in the analyses specific to Turkiye. Johansen cointegration tests were conducted to analyze the existence of a long run relationship between the variables. In addition, dynamic least squares (DOLS) and fully adjusted least squares (FMOLS) estimation methods were used to determine long run coefficients. The findings obtained from the Johansen cointegration analysis confirmed a long run cointegration relationship between the variables. FMOLS consequences indicate that real gross domestic product per capita, economic freedom index, tax burden, social assistance, and unemployment rate have a robust and significant effect on international migration to Turkiye in the long run. The DOLS analysis results also show that health expenditures have a positive impact on international migration. The results of this study can be used to develop migration projections and create migration policies that can lead to better economic and social integration among immigrants.

Journal

BALTIC JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

Year

2025

Volume

11

Issue

3

Pages

296-306

ISSN

2256-0742

eISSN

2256-0963

DOI

10.30525/2256-0742/2025-11-3-296-306

WoS UID

WOS:001551835400011