Kiwi Production Forecasts for the Leading Countries in the Period 1983-2027

The aim of this study is to estimate kiwi production quantities in the 1983-2027 period by using 1983-2022 data of the leading countries in kiwi production in the world. We obtained 40-year data from FAOSTAT and analyzed these with the help of the SAS 9.4 statistics program. In order to determine these predictions, ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models were used. In cases where the data is not stationary, the 1-year delay was made and the most suitable ARIMA model was chosen according to Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Sum of Squared Errors (SSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Percentage error (MPE) criteria. In the 1980s, countries such as New Zealand, China, Italy, Greece, Iran, Chile, and France were among the top producers in the world. Until the 2000s, New Zealand and Italy were the world's top two kiwifruit producers. However, after 2003, China emerged as the dominant producer country in the oligopoly market, accounting for approximately 50% of global production. New Zealand and Italy rank second, with shares of roughly 13-16%. While China is expected to be in first place with 52% in the years 2023-2027, it is estimated that New Zealand (13%), Italy (11%), Iran, and Greece (7% share) will be the most important producers. Under today's conditions, countries that adapt to climate change and produce more efficient varieties with higher product prices through R&D activities will have a competitive advantage. Therefore, we anticipate robust demand and increased revenue growth in the global kiwifruit market in the upcoming years.

Journal

APPLIED FRUIT SCIENCE

Year

2025

Volume

67

Issue

2

ISSN

2948-2623

eISSN

2948-2631

DOI

10.1007/s10341-025-01289-8

WoS UID

WOS:001439363300002