Is low carbon energy consumption sufficient for a sustainable environment in BRICS economies? Evidence from novel Fourier asymmetric CS-ARDL

Sustainable economic growth and limiting environmental degradation are increasingly crucial for countries, as there has been a significant shift in ecological balance since the Industrial Revolution. Economic activities in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) also expand the ecological footprint while reducing biocapacity. To support these economies in meeting their environmental commitments, this research spotlights the influences of income growth, low-carbon energy consumption, and urbanization on the Load Capacity Factor. However, it is worth noting that previous papers have assumed a linear association between cleaner energy and environmental quality, often ignoring the implications of fluctuations in low-carbon energy consumption, such as the combination of renewables and nuclear energy, on ecological sustainability. Therefore, by introducing a sophisticated "Fourier Asymmetric Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag" model, this paper aims to address this gap by including disaggregated positive and negative shocks in low-carbon energy use and integrating the Fourier terms to account for possible structural shifts. Furthermore, the study tests the LCC hypothesis. The findings, based on the period 1992-2022, reveal that in both the short and long term, negative shocks in low-carbon energy consumption increase ecological well-being, while positive shocks jeopardize environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the outcome questions the validity of the LCC hypothesis in the BRICS context and identifies urbanization as a factor that deteriorates ecological well-being. Consequently, the paper's implications underscore the urgent need for policies to transition to a green economy, low-carbon energy, and smart urbanization practices in BRICS for ecological sustainability.

Journal

STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Year

2025

Volume

39

Issue

4

Pages

1291-1306

ISSN

1436-3240

eISSN

1436-3259

DOI

10.1007/s00477-025-02913-5

WoS UID

WOS:001425344600001