Predicting aridity patterns in the Middle Black Sea basin: a scenario-based spatial risk assessment

Aridity, a growing threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, and earth cycles, is a complex environmental hazard. Probabilistic future projections of aridity are crucial for governments and urban planners to effectively manage this global crisis. This study aims to simulate the effects of climate change on potential future aridity in a hydrologically sensitive basin in T & uuml;rkiye using climate change projections. Forecast maps were generated by employing multiple aridity indices from De Martonne (IDM), Pinna (IP), Lang (IL) under socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP245, SSP585) defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports in twenty-year periods until 2100. The results indicate a consistent increase in aridity across all indices after 2040. The most severe scenario (SSP585) predicts that more than 50% of the study area will shift from its current humid classification to semi-arid and arid conditions by the end of the century. Notably, the IL forecasts the emergence of new arid zones covering 69% of the area. The IDM and IP indices corroborate these findings, indicating the risk of the complete absence of extremely and very humid areas and a substantial decrease in humid areas, respectively. These findings highlight the significant climate risks associated with future aridity and emphasize the critical need for proactive measures to mitigate impending climate change-induced aridity and its potential for increased natural hazards.

Dergi

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Yıl

2025

Cilt

156

Sayı

6

ISSN

0177-798X

eISSN

1434-4483

DOI

10.1007/s00704-025-05558-0

WoS UID

WOS:001497416600004